Ponzi Radar

What does 2% per week actually compound to?

Taken at face value and multiplied out, 2% per week is 180% a year. That is about 45.0x what you would get from a three-month Treasury bill that pays around 4% and a government-insured deposit around 3.5%. The arithmetic below assumes every payment arrives on time, which is the assumption that fails in practice, not the compounding.

What this rate means

A textbook scheme profile

Rates in this range do not describe investing, they describe a Ponzi structure: the payout schedule only clears while new deposits keep arriving.

Advertised rate 2% per week as promoters quote it
Compounded over a year 180% (1.0200) to the power of 52
Money doubles in 35 days at this rate, if it were real
$1,000 after one year $1.4M no fees, no tax, no missed payment
Payout owed on $1,000 $86.67 a month for the promise to hold, forever

2% per week, by starting amount

Held for$100 becomes$1,000 becomes$10,000 becomes
1 year$280.03$2.8K$28.0K
3 years$2.2K$22.0K$219.6K
5 years$17.2K$172.2K$1.7M
10 years$3.0M$29.7M$296.5M

Balance = principal x (1 + 2%) ^ periods, compounded every week.

2% per week against what is guaranteed

Reference levels: long-run approximations, October 2026. A multiple of "-" means the comparison does not apply.

Reference levelRateThis rate in multiples
Insured bank deposit (US, FDIC)3.5% a year (guaranteed)51.4x
3-month US Treasury bill4.0% a year (guaranteed)45.0x
US inflation (consumer prices)2.5% a year (not investable, measures erosion)72.0x
S&P 500, long-run average10.0% a year (not guaranteed to anyone)18.0x
Best long-run professional record (Buffett, decades)20.0% a year (not guaranteed to anyone)9.0x

The red line

A guaranteed return higher than a Treasury bill or an insured deposit cannot exist. Every dollar paid above the risk-free rate is paid for with risk, leverage, or other people's deposits. A published promise of a fixed return above the risk-free rate is the definition of a return trap.

No published entry on this register currently quotes a rate in this range. The arithmetic above still applies to any offer that does.

Questions about 2% per week

Try your own numbers

All advertised rates · all calculators · the method and math.