Ponzi Radar

What does 10% per week actually compound to?

Taken at face value and multiplied out, 10% per week is 14,104% a year. That is about 3,526x what you would get from a three-month Treasury bill that pays around 4% and a government-insured deposit around 3.5%. The arithmetic below assumes every payment arrives on time, which is the assumption that fails in practice, not the compounding.

What this rate means

Mathematically impossible to sustain

Compounded, this turns a small deposit into more money than exists. Nobody has ever sustained it. The advertised number is bait.

Advertised rate 10% per week as promoters quote it
Compounded over a year 14,104% (1.1000) to the power of 52
Money doubles in 7 days at this rate, if it were real
$1,000 after one year $1.28e+18 no fees, no tax, no missed payment
Payout owed on $1,000 $433.33 a month for the promise to hold, forever

10% per week, by starting amount

Held for$100 becomes$1,000 becomes$10,000 becomes
1 year$14.2K$142.0K$1.4M
3 years$286.6M$2.9B$28.7B
5 years$5.8T$57.8T$578.2T
10 years$3.34e+23$3.34e+24$3.34e+25

Balance = principal x (1 + 10%) ^ periods, compounded every week.

10% per week against what is guaranteed

Reference levels: long-run approximations, October 2026. A multiple of "-" means the comparison does not apply.

Reference levelRateThis rate in multiples
Insured bank deposit (US, FDIC)3.5% a year (guaranteed)4,030x
3-month US Treasury bill4.0% a year (guaranteed)3,526x
US inflation (consumer prices)2.5% a year (not investable, measures erosion)5,642x
S&P 500, long-run average10.0% a year (not guaranteed to anyone)1,410x
Best long-run professional record (Buffett, decades)20.0% a year (not guaranteed to anyone)705x

The red line

A guaranteed return higher than a Treasury bill or an insured deposit cannot exist. Every dollar paid above the risk-free rate is paid for with risk, leverage, or other people's deposits. A published promise of a fixed return above the risk-free rate is the definition of a return trap.

No published entry on this register currently quotes a rate in this range. The arithmetic above still applies to any offer that does.

Questions about 10% per week

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