Ponzi Radar

What does 1% per week actually compound to?

Taken at face value and multiplied out, 1% per week is 67.77% a year. That is about 16.9x what you would get from a three-month Treasury bill that pays around 4% and a government-insured deposit around 3.5%. The arithmetic below assumes every payment arrives on time, which is the assumption that fails in practice, not the compounding.

What this rate means

A textbook scheme profile

Rates in this range do not describe investing, they describe a Ponzi structure: the payout schedule only clears while new deposits keep arriving.

Advertised rate 1% per week as promoters quote it
Compounded over a year 67.77% (1.0100) to the power of 52
Money doubles in 2 months at this rate, if it were real
$1,000 after one year $37.8K no fees, no tax, no missed payment
Payout owed on $1,000 $43.33 a month for the promise to hold, forever

1% per week, by starting amount

Held for$100 becomes$1,000 becomes$10,000 becomes
1 year$167.77$1.7K$16.8K
3 years$472.21$4.7K$47.2K
5 years$1.3K$13.3K$132.9K
10 years$17.7K$176.7K$1.8M

Balance = principal x (1 + 1%) ^ periods, compounded every week.

1% per week against what is guaranteed

Reference levels: long-run approximations, October 2026. A multiple of "-" means the comparison does not apply.

Reference levelRateThis rate in multiples
Insured bank deposit (US, FDIC)3.5% a year (guaranteed)19.4x
3-month US Treasury bill4.0% a year (guaranteed)16.9x
US inflation (consumer prices)2.5% a year (not investable, measures erosion)27.1x
S&P 500, long-run average10.0% a year (not guaranteed to anyone)6.8x
Best long-run professional record (Buffett, decades)20.0% a year (not guaranteed to anyone)3.4x

The red line

A guaranteed return higher than a Treasury bill or an insured deposit cannot exist. Every dollar paid above the risk-free rate is paid for with risk, leverage, or other people's deposits. A published promise of a fixed return above the risk-free rate is the definition of a return trap.

No published entry on this register currently quotes a rate in this range. The arithmetic above still applies to any offer that does.

Questions about 1% per week

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