Ponzi Radar

What does 20% per month actually compound to?

Taken at face value and multiplied out, 20% per month is 792% a year. That is about 198x what you would get from a three-month Treasury bill that pays around 4% and a government-insured deposit around 3.5%. The arithmetic below assumes every payment arrives on time, which is the assumption that fails in practice, not the compounding.

What this rate means

Mathematically impossible to sustain

Compounded, this turns a small deposit into more money than exists. Nobody has ever sustained it. The advertised number is bait.

Advertised rate 20% per month as promoters quote it
Compounded over a year 792% (1.2000) to the power of 12
Money doubles in 4 days at this rate, if it were real
$1,000 after one year $7.96e+31 no fees, no tax, no missed payment
Payout owed on $1,000 $200.00 a month for the promise to hold, forever

20% per month, by starting amount

Held for$100 becomes$1,000 becomes$10,000 becomes
1 year$891.61$8.9K$89.2K
3 years$70.9K$708.8K$7.1M
5 years$5.6M$56.3M$563.5M
10 years$317.5B$3.2T$31.8T

Balance = principal x (1 + 20%) ^ periods, compounded every month.

20% per month against what is guaranteed

Reference levels: long-run approximations, October 2026. A multiple of "-" means the comparison does not apply.

Reference levelRateThis rate in multiples
Insured bank deposit (US, FDIC)3.5% a year (guaranteed)226x
3-month US Treasury bill4.0% a year (guaranteed)198x
US inflation (consumer prices)2.5% a year (not investable, measures erosion)317x
S&P 500, long-run average10.0% a year (not guaranteed to anyone)79.2x
Best long-run professional record (Buffett, decades)20.0% a year (not guaranteed to anyone)39.6x

The red line

A guaranteed return higher than a Treasury bill or an insured deposit cannot exist. Every dollar paid above the risk-free rate is paid for with risk, leverage, or other people's deposits. A published promise of a fixed return above the risk-free rate is the definition of a return trap.

No published entry on this register currently quotes a rate in this range. The arithmetic above still applies to any offer that does.

Questions about 20% per month

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