Ponzi Radar

What does 10% per month actually compound to?

Taken at face value and multiplied out, 10% per month is 214% a year. That is about 53.5x what you would get from a three-month Treasury bill that pays around 4% and a government-insured deposit around 3.5%. The arithmetic below assumes every payment arrives on time, which is the assumption that fails in practice, not the compounding.

What this rate means

A textbook scheme profile

Rates in this range do not describe investing, they describe a Ponzi structure: the payout schedule only clears while new deposits keep arriving.

Advertised rate 10% per month as promoters quote it
Compounded over a year 214% (1.1000) to the power of 12
Money doubles in 7 days at this rate, if it were real
$1,000 after one year $1.28e+18 no fees, no tax, no missed payment
Payout owed on $1,000 $100.00 a month for the promise to hold, forever

10% per month, by starting amount

Held for$100 becomes$1,000 becomes$10,000 becomes
1 year$313.84$3.1K$31.4K
3 years$3.1K$30.9K$309.1K
5 years$30.4K$304.5K$3.0M
10 years$9.3M$92.7M$927.1M

Balance = principal x (1 + 10%) ^ periods, compounded every month.

10% per month against what is guaranteed

Reference levels: long-run approximations, October 2026. A multiple of "-" means the comparison does not apply.

Reference levelRateThis rate in multiples
Insured bank deposit (US, FDIC)3.5% a year (guaranteed)61.1x
3-month US Treasury bill4.0% a year (guaranteed)53.5x
US inflation (consumer prices)2.5% a year (not investable, measures erosion)85.5x
S&P 500, long-run average10.0% a year (not guaranteed to anyone)21.4x
Best long-run professional record (Buffett, decades)20.0% a year (not guaranteed to anyone)10.7x

The red line

A guaranteed return higher than a Treasury bill or an insured deposit cannot exist. Every dollar paid above the risk-free rate is paid for with risk, leverage, or other people's deposits. A published promise of a fixed return above the risk-free rate is the definition of a return trap.

No published entry on this register currently quotes a rate in this range. The arithmetic above still applies to any offer that does.

Questions about 10% per month

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