Ponzi Radar

What does 40% per day actually compound to?

Taken at face value and multiplied out, 40% per day is about 2.17e+55% a year. That is more than 5.43e+54x what you would get from a three-month Treasury bill that pays around 4% and a government-insured deposit around 3.5%. The arithmetic below assumes every payment arrives on time, which is the assumption that fails in practice, not the compounding.

What this rate means

Mathematically impossible to sustain

Compounded, this turns a small deposit into more money than exists. Nobody has ever sustained it. The advertised number is bait.

Advertised rate 40% per day as promoters quote it
Compounded over a year about 2.17e+55% (1.4000) to the power of 365
Money doubles in 2 days at this rate, if it were real
$1,000 after one year $2.17e+56 no fees, no tax, no missed payment
Payout owed on $1,000 $12.2K a month for the promise to hold, forever

40% per day, by starting amount

Held for$100 becomes$1,000 becomes$10,000 becomes
1 year$2.17e+55$2.17e+56$2.17e+57
3 years$1.02e+162$1.02e+163$1.02e+164
5 years$4.83e+268$4.83e+269$4.83e+270
10 years∞∞∞

Balance = principal x (1 + 40%) ^ periods, compounded every day.

40% per day against what is guaranteed

Reference levels: long-run approximations, October 2026. A multiple of "-" means the comparison does not apply.

Reference levelRateThis rate in multiples
Insured bank deposit (US, FDIC)3.5% a year (guaranteed)more than 6.2e+54x
3-month US Treasury bill4.0% a year (guaranteed)more than 5.43e+54x
US inflation (consumer prices)2.5% a year (not investable, measures erosion)more than 8.69e+54x
S&P 500, long-run average10.0% a year (not guaranteed to anyone)more than 2.17e+54x
Best long-run professional record (Buffett, decades)20.0% a year (not guaranteed to anyone)more than 1.09e+54x

The red line

A guaranteed return higher than a Treasury bill or an insured deposit cannot exist. Every dollar paid above the risk-free rate is paid for with risk, leverage, or other people's deposits. A published promise of a fixed return above the risk-free rate is the definition of a return trap.

Entries on this register quoting about 40% per day

These are published entries whose archived material quotes a rate in this range. Each one links to the evidence, the wording as published, and the strength-of-evidence check.

Questions about 40% per day

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