Ponzi Radar

What does 0.2% per day actually compound to?

Taken at face value and multiplied out, 0.2% per day is 107% a year. That is about 26.8x what you would get from a three-month Treasury bill that pays around 4% and a government-insured deposit around 3.5%. The arithmetic below assumes every payment arrives on time, which is the assumption that fails in practice, not the compounding.

What this rate means

A textbook scheme profile

Rates in this range do not describe investing, they describe a Ponzi structure: the payout schedule only clears while new deposits keep arriving.

Advertised rate 0.2% per day as promoters quote it
Compounded over a year 107% (1.0020) to the power of 365
Money doubles in 11 months at this rate, if it were real
$1,000 after one year $2.1K no fees, no tax, no missed payment
Payout owed on $1,000 $60.83 a month for the promise to hold, forever

0.2% per day, by starting amount

Held for$100 becomes$1,000 becomes$10,000 becomes
1 year$207.36$2.1K$20.7K
3 years$891.57$8.9K$89.2K
5 years$3.8K$38.3K$383.3K
10 years$147.0K$1.5M$14.7M

Balance = principal x (1 + 0.2%) ^ periods, compounded every day.

0.2% per day against what is guaranteed

Reference levels: long-run approximations, October 2026. A multiple of "-" means the comparison does not apply.

Reference levelRateThis rate in multiples
Insured bank deposit (US, FDIC)3.5% a year (guaranteed)30.7x
3-month US Treasury bill4.0% a year (guaranteed)26.8x
US inflation (consumer prices)2.5% a year (not investable, measures erosion)42.9x
S&P 500, long-run average10.0% a year (not guaranteed to anyone)10.7x
Best long-run professional record (Buffett, decades)20.0% a year (not guaranteed to anyone)5.4x

The red line

A guaranteed return higher than a Treasury bill or an insured deposit cannot exist. Every dollar paid above the risk-free rate is paid for with risk, leverage, or other people's deposits. A published promise of a fixed return above the risk-free rate is the definition of a return trap.

No published entry on this register currently quotes a rate in this range. The arithmetic above still applies to any offer that does.

Questions about 0.2% per day

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