Ponzi Radar

What does 0.1% per day actually compound to?

Taken at face value and multiplied out, 0.1% per day is 44.03% a year. That is about 11.0x what you would get from a three-month Treasury bill that pays around 4% and a government-insured deposit around 3.5%. The arithmetic below assumes every payment arrives on time, which is the assumption that fails in practice, not the compounding.

What this rate means

Far above anything supervised finance guarantees

Returns this size exist only inside leveraged trading, private equity and a handful of short-lived funds - never as a fixed, guaranteed rate paid to the public. A guarantee at this level is paid from the money coming in after you.

Advertised rate 0.1% per day as promoters quote it
Compounded over a year 44.03% (1.0010) to the power of 365
Money doubles in 1.9 years at this rate, if it were real
$1,000 after one year $1.4K no fees, no tax, no missed payment
Payout owed on $1,000 $30.42 a month for the promise to hold, forever

0.1% per day, by starting amount

Held for$100 becomes$1,000 becomes$10,000 becomes
1 year$144.03$1.4K$14.4K
3 years$298.75$3.0K$29.9K
5 years$619.71$6.2K$62.0K
10 years$3.8K$38.4K$384.0K

Balance = principal x (1 + 0.1%) ^ periods, compounded every day.

0.1% per day against what is guaranteed

Reference levels: long-run approximations, October 2026. A multiple of "-" means the comparison does not apply.

Reference levelRateThis rate in multiples
Insured bank deposit (US, FDIC)3.5% a year (guaranteed)12.6x
3-month US Treasury bill4.0% a year (guaranteed)11.0x
US inflation (consumer prices)2.5% a year (not investable, measures erosion)17.6x
S&P 500, long-run average10.0% a year (not guaranteed to anyone)4.4x
Best long-run professional record (Buffett, decades)20.0% a year (not guaranteed to anyone)2.2x

The red line

A guaranteed return higher than a Treasury bill or an insured deposit cannot exist. Every dollar paid above the risk-free rate is paid for with risk, leverage, or other people's deposits. A published promise of a fixed return above the risk-free rate is the definition of a return trap.

No published entry on this register currently quotes a rate in this range. The arithmetic above still applies to any offer that does.

Questions about 0.1% per day

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